200909Investment Outlook : On the course to a new normal

PIMCO - Gross Sept On the Course to a New Normal:

Gross提醒想要大賺一把的投資人注意下列幾項

As of now, PIMCO observes that the highest probabilities favor the following strategic conclusions:

1. Global policy rates will remain low for extended periods of time.
2. The extent and duration of quantitative easing, term financing and fiscal stimulation efforts are keys to future investment returns across a multitude of asset categories, both domestically and globally.
3. Investors should continue to anticipate and, if necessary, shake hands with government policies, utilizing leverage and/or guarantees to their benefit.
4. Asia and Asian-connected economies (Australia, Brazil) will dominate future global growth.
5. The dollar is vulnerable on a long-term basis.

我想他寫的時候還沒有發生上海股市跳水事件，這世界經濟可能還是以美國馬首是瞻，而且看來這跳水還沒到個底。

NBER businesss cycle(LAST PEAK:2007.11)

BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES		DURATION IN MONTHS
Peak	Trough	Contraction	Expansion	Cycle
Quarterly dates are in parentheses		Peak to Trough	Previous trough to this peak	Trough from Previous Trough	Peak from Previous Peak
June 1857(II) October 1860(III) April 1865(I) June 1869(II) October 1873(III) March 1882(I) March 1887(II) July 1890(III) January 1893(I) December 1895(IV) June 1899(III) September 1902(IV) May 1907(II) January 1910(I) January 1913(I) August 1918(III) January 1920(I) May 1923(II) October 1926(III) August 1929(III) May 1937(II) February 1945(I) November 1948(IV) July 1953(II) August 1957(III) April 1960(II) December 1969(IV) November 1973(IV) January 1980(I) July 1981(III) July 1990(III) March 2001(I) December 2007 (IV)	December 1854 (IV) December 1858 (IV) June 1861 (III) December 1867 (I) December 1870 (IV) March 1879 (I) May 1885 (II) April 1888 (I) May 1891 (II) June 1894 (II) June 1897 (II) December 1900 (IV) August 1904 (III) June 1908 (II) January 1912 (IV) December 1914 (IV) March 1919 (I) July 1921 (III) July 1924 (III) November 1927 (IV) March 1933 (I) June 1938 (II) October 1945 (IV) October 1949 (IV) May 1954 (II) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 1970 (IV) March 1975 (I) July 1980 (III) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 2001 (IV)	-- 18 8 32 18 65 38 13 10 17 18 18 23 13 24 23 7 18 14 13 43 13 8 11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 8	-- 30 22 46 18 34 36 22 27 20 18 24 21 33 19 12 44 10 22 27 21 50 80 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 73	-- 48 30 78 36 99 74 35 37 37 36 42 44 46 43 35 51 28 36 40 64 63 88 48 55 47 34 117 52 64 28 100 128	-- -- 40 54 50 52 101 60 40 30 35 42 39 56 32 36 67 17 40 41 34 93 93 45 56 49 32 116 47 74 18 108 128 81
Average, all cycles: 1854-2001 (32 cycles) 1854-1919 (16 cycles) 1919-1945 (6 cycles) 1945-2001 (10 cycles)		17 22 18 10	38 27 35 57	55 48 53 67	56*   49** 53 67

台灣景氣訊號分數

自已做的資料檔，是google doc的格式。

景氣訊號分數

從2008年12月掉入9之後（買入訊號），就可以大力買股票了，可採用定期定張的方式買台50。

中段再買主流類股（阿水伯選股）。

到了景氣訊號分數達28時（景氣過熱），就可以一次賣出股票。

一般股市是領先指標

買入訊號採低點再低一點的位置（股市約可早2個月下跌）

賣出訊號採高點再低一點的位置（股市會在景氣過熱前達最高峰）

因應未來景氣可能有一陣子不復以往故將finance168的17改成14，32改成28。